a. For this example, apply an exponental smoothing model with α = 0.25 to forecast the monthly sales for months 2 through 20.
b. Use α = 0.30. How do these results compare to the ones in (a)?
c. Use α = 0.50. How do these resuts compare to the ones in (a) and (b)?
d. Calculate the mean absolute deviation (MAD) of each model. Which value of a would you prefer for this situation? Why?
a) The table is attached with the forecast value for 0.25
b) The table is attached with the forecast value for 0.3
c)The table is attached with the forecast value for 0.5
d) MAD (0.25) = 7.3955 ; MAD(0.3) = 6.6545; MAD(0.5) = 5.1582 MAD is small for Alpha value of 0.5 and which is more reliable over other two models
For this example, apply an exponental smoothing model with α = 0.25 to forecast the monthly sales for months 2 through 20
Predict Inc., is using a simple exponential smoothing model to forecast their monthly sales but they are not sure of the best alpha value to use. They ran some computerized forecasts with different alpha values and reported the following. What alpha value should they use? alpha 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35 0.40 0.45 0.50 MAD 18.4 14.7 13.2 16.2 15.3 11.7 10.2 12.5 Group of answer choices 0.45 0.15 0.2 0.35 0.5
The following table contains the demand from the last 10 months: MONTH ACTUAL DEMAND 1 36 2 38 3 40 4 41 5 43 6 42 7 43 8 45 9 46 10 48 a. Calculate the single exponential smoothing forecast for these data using an α of 0.30 and an initial forecast (F1) of 36. (Round your intermediate calculations and answers to 2 decimal places.) b. Calculate the exponential smoothing with trend forecast for these data using an α...
2. (20 points) The following table shows the monthly sales in a local grocery store Month and 120 115 125 119 127 114 114 120 124 116 137 10 a. Suppose that Three-weeks moving average are used to forecast sales. Determine the one-step-ahead forecasts for weeks 4 through 10. b. Suppose that exponential smoothing is used with a smoothing constant α-02. Find the exponential smoothing forecasts weeks 4 through 10. (To get the method started, use 120.00 as the forecast...
You want to compare how two forecasting methods would perform on some historical sales data. You will forecast the sales for months 4 through 19, calculate the mean absolute deviation (MAD) for both methods, and you can claim that the one that has lower MAD performed better, at least for the historical data. a) The first method is known as the moving average method. The forecast for a month will be the average sales of three previous months. So, forecast...
2. Consider the following time series data: 2Month Value 20 15 23 6 4 13 6 18 25 10 8 10 9 24 12 10 21 13 19 14 15 la. Use a α # 0.25 to compute the exponential smoothing values for the time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for Month 12. b. Compare the two-month moving average forecast with the exponential smoothing forecast using a 0.25. Which appears to 17 provide the better forecast based on MSE?...
excel spreadsheet information: Month Sales (in millions of boxes) 1 1306 2 1305 3 1311 4 1313 5 1324 6 1329 7 1346 8 1347 9 1378 10 1394 11 1441 12 1469 Problem 3 You have realized that the sales for Select-A-Size Paper Towel packs have been increasing over the past year. You have learned that the double exponential smoothing method can account for such a trend in the data. Use double (trend-adjusted) exponential smoothing method to forecast sales...
Please help with questions 7 - 10. PART IV Planning and Controling Operations and Supply Chains 290 period 1 was 250. Plot the results. Which model appears to work better? Why? 10. After graduating from college, you and your friends start selling birdhouses made from recycled plast has caught on, as shown by the following sales figures For problems 4 through 6, use the following time series data: The idea DEMAND MONTH January 2012 February March April May June 119...
b-2. Using the MAD method of testing the forecasting model's performance, plus actual data from 3 years ago through the second quarter of this year, how well did the model perform? Based on MAD, an a performs better than an a of (Click to select) c. Using the decomp (Click to select) 0.3 0.2 hod of forecasting, forecast earnings per share for the last two quarters of this year and all four quarters of next year. (Negative values should be...
Examples 1,2,3 1. Beyond Tea Inc. wants to forecast sales of its menthol green tea. The company is considering either using a simple mean or a three-period moving average to forecast monthly sales. Given sales data for the past 10 months use both forecasting methods to forecast periods 7 to 10 and then evaluate each. Which method should they use? Use the selected method to make a forecast for month 11. (Show all calculations .... Please read Examples1, 2, 3...
question 3 View 9/08/2010 B C Date D A 09/03/2010 09/07/2010 09/08/2010 09/09/2010 09/10/2010 09/13/2010 2 B C 127.88 Stock Exchange 3 18.42 20.95 125.76 15.54 18.06 10390.38 10434 81 20.57 15.36 15.74 15.85 15.92 126.44 17.98 20.58 10326.59 10315.28 126.35 17.85 20.51 127.66 17.89 20.58 10374.84 130.84 18.72 21.15 16.13 10632.82 129.46 09/14/2010 21.24 1044131 10570.39 10569.85 10697 94 10778.19 18.64 16.19 16.26 18,73 21.47 21.87 09/15/2010 128.56 16.26 19.03 130,67 09/16/2010 16.28 22.04 18.77 129.89 09/17/2010 16.71 21.91...