The monthly sales for Yazici Batteries, Inc., were as follows:
Month | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sept | Oct | Nov | Dec |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sales | 20 | 21 | 15 | 12 | 15 | 18 | 15 | 19 | 22 | 21 | 21 | 24 |
This exercise contains only parts b and c.
b) The forecast for the next month (Jan) using the naive method = _______ sales (round your response to a whole number)
The forecast for the next period (Jan) using a 3-month moving average approach = _______ sales (round your response to two decimal places)
The forecast for the next period (Jan) using a 6-month weighted average with weights of 0.10, 0.10, 0.10, 0.20,0.20, and 0.30, where the heaviest weights are applied to the most recent month = _______ sales (round your response to one decimal place).
Using exponential smoothing with α-040 and a September forecast of 20.00 the forecast for the next period Jan=_______ sales round your response to two decimal places).
Using a method of trend projection, the forecast for the next month (Jan)sales (round your response to two decimal places)
Let the sales for month t be denoted by St and Forecast for month t by Ft
(b) For Naive Forecast, Ft = St-1
Hence, FJan = SDec = 24
For 3 month moving Average, Ft = (St-1 +
St-2 + St-3)/3
=> FJan = (SDec + SNov +
SOct)/3 = (24 + 21 + 21)/3 = 22
6 month Weighted moving average Forecast = 0.3St-1 +
0.2St-2 + 0.2St-3 + 0.1St-4 +
0.1St-5 + 0.1St-6
=> FJan = 0.3SDec +
0.2SNov + 0.2SOct + 0.1SSep +
0.1SAug + 0.1SJul
= 0.3*24 + 0.2*21 + 0.2*21 + 0.1*22 + 0.1*19 + 0.1*15 = 21.2
Exponential Forecast Ft = Ft-1 +
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