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Rate of Return if State Occurs State of Economy State of Economy Stock A Stock B Stock C Boom Probability of 0.18 0.11 0.48 0

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Answer #1

Answer(a): Calculating Expected return-

State of economy Probability Stock A Stock B Stock C
Boom .10 .18 .48 .33
Good .30 .11 .18 .15
Poor .40 .05 -.09 -.05
Bust .20 -.03 -.32 -.09

Expected return = Probability * Rate of normal return

Expected return of Stock A= (.10*.18) + (.30*.11) + (.40*.05) + (.20*-.03)

Expected return of Stock A: (.018) + (.033) + (.02) + (-.006)

Expected return of Stock A = .065 or 6.5%

Expected return of Stock B= (.10*.48) + (.30*.18) + (.40*-.09) + (.20*-.32)

Expected return of Stock B= (.048) + (.054) + (-.036) + (-.064)

Expected return of Stock B= .002 or .2%

Expected return of Stock C= (.10*.33) + (.30*.15) + (.40*-.05) + (.20*-.09)

Expected return of Stock C= (.033) + (.045) + (-.02) + (-.018)

Expected return of Stock C= .04 Or 4%

Expected return of the portfolio = Sum of all the stocks' expected return

Expected return of the portfolio = (6.5%) + (.2%) + (4%)

Expected return of the portfolio = 10.70%

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