capsim simulation
the first part is already been answered.
could you please Help me on the second part the last two
photos.
You will need the Segment Analysis reports (pages 5 - 9) of The Capstone Courier for Round 0 and the Industry Conditions Report. At the top of each Segment Analysis page you will find a box called Statistics. On Form 2, copy the Total Industry Unit Demand number for each segment into the Demand cell for Round 0. Next, copy the Next Year’s Growth Rate, which is also in the Statistics box, into the Rate cell.
The table mentioned above looks like this:
Total Industry Unit Demand | 10,713 |
Actual Industry Unit Sales | 9,746 |
Segment % of Total Industry | 25.4% |
Next Year's Growth Rate | 5.4% |
The Round 0 demand is 10,713 and the growth rate is 5.4%.
Multiply the Round 0 demand by the growth rate and add the result to the Round 0 demand. This will give you a close approximation of Round 1 demand. Copy this number into the Demand cell for Round 1.
Thus, the demand for Round 1 becomes: 10,713(1+0.054) = 11,291.502
The second part of the question asks us to predict the demand for the next year for Rounds 2-8. We have been told that the Round 1 growth rate will continue into the future unchanged - this means that for all Rounds, we can assume a growth rate of 5.4%.
Thus for Round 2, demand is = (Round 1 demand)x(1.054) =
11,291.502 x 1.054 = 11,901.243
Round 3 Demand = 11,901.243 x 1.054 = 12,543.910
Round 4 Demand = 12,543.910 x 1.054 = 13,221.281
Round 5 Demand = 13,211.281 x 1.054 = 13,935.23
Similarly, we can calculate for the next rounds. The process
becomes easier if we solve on an Excel sheet and assign the formula
to cells instead of calculating individually.
Now, for low end/worst case analysis, growth rate halves and
becomes (0.5x5.4) = 2.7%
And for high end/best case analysis, growth rate becomes 1.5 times
5.4% = 8.1%
Low End Round 1 Demand = 10,713 x 1.027 = 11,002.251
Low End Round 2 Demand = 11,002.251 x 1.027 = 11,299.312
Low End Round 3 Demand = 11,299.312 x 1.027 = 11,604.393 and so
on.
High End Round 1 Demand = 10,713 x 1.081 = 11,580.753
High End Round 2 Demand = 11,580.753 x 1.081 = 12,518.794
High End Round 3 Demand = 12,518.794 x 1.081 = 13,532.816 and so
on.
capsim simulation the first part is already been answered. could you please Help me on the...
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