Question

4. In studying climate, scientists are often concerned about positive feedback loops: two or more pro- cesses that amplify each other, creating a system of amplification that leads to a vicious cycle. One example is the interaction of water vapor with global temperature. If global temperature increases, the capacity of the atmosphere to contain evaporated water vapor also increases. If water resources are available, this would result in an increased amount of water vapor in the atmosphere. Water vapor is a greenhouse gas, thus if a climate system has more water vapor in the atmosphere, the global temperature will increase due to the increased insulation of the atmosphere. This positive feedback loop will eventually equilibrate at a higher temperature. Some scientists predict that a global increase in average temperature of just two degrees would be enough to kick off a system of positive feedback loops that would equilibrate at a temperature at least 6 degrees higher than we have now. This 6-degree increase would be enough to turn rainforests into deserts and melt ice caps. It may even redistribute the areas of the world that can support human life, i.e. making previously uninhabitable places, like the northern reaches of Siberia and Canada, inhabitable (though they may not support agriculture) and previously inhabitable places, like coastal cities, uninhabitable. (a) A modern pre-industrial average temperature at the equator is about 20 degrees Celsius. As- suming that our current global climate system has not undergone this vicious cycle, model this system with a phase line. What are the essential features of that phase line? (b) What is a simple differential equation that corresponds to your above phase line?

Answer 1

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