Question

Here is Your background information, translatable into B, for this problem. (Fact 1) As a broad generalization (which you can verify empirically), statisticians tend to have shy personalities more often than economists do let's quantify this observation by assuming that 80% of statisticians are shy but the corresponding percentage among economists is only 15% . (Fact 2) Conferences on the topic of econometrics are almost exclusively attended by economists and statisticians, with the majority of participants being economists let's quantify this fact by assuming that 90% of the attendees are economists (and the rest statisticians) Suppose that you (a physicist, say) go to an econometrics conferenceyou strike up a conversation with the first person you (haphazardly) meet, and find that this person is shy. The point of this problem is to show that the (conditional) probability p that you're talking to a statistician, given this data and the above background information, is only about 37%. which most people find surprisingly low, and to understand why this is the right answer Let St = (person is statistician). E-person is economist), and Sh = (person is shy) (a) Identify (in the form of a proposition B, one of the elements of B) the most important assumption needed in this problem to permit its solution to be probabilistic; expain briefly5 pints (b) Using the St. E and Sh notation, express the three numbers (80%, 15%, 90%) above and the probability we're solving for, in conditional probability terms, remembering to condition appropriately on B. [5 points]

Answer 1