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A popular film series has produced 24 films of which 13 have been good. A new film from the series is about to come out, and

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Answer #1

Solution:

Probability of a movie being good = 13/24

We are required to find the probability that the film was good, given that the trailer released is good. This can be done using Bayesian rule:

P(good film|released good trailer) = [P(released good trailer|good film)*P(good film)]/[P(released good trailer|good film)*P(good film) + P(released good trailer|bad film)*P(bad film)]

P(good film|released good trailer) = [67.3%*13/24]/[67.3%*13/24 + 29.2%*(1 - 13/24)]

P(good film|released good trailer) = [8.749/24]/[8.749/24 + 3.212/24]

P(good film|released good trailer) = 8.749/11.961 = 0.7315 or 73.15% (approximately).

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