Given the following data, what is the Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD):
Month | Demand | Forecast |
Jan | 100 | 110 |
Feb | 100 | 100 |
Mar | 120 | 100 |
Apr | 110 | 90 |
May | 100 | 110 |
Jun | 90 | 100 |
Jul | 80 | 90 |
Aug | 90 | 80 |
Sep | 100 | 110 |
Oct | 110 | 100 |
Nov | 110 | 110 |
Dec | 120 | 110 |
A. |
10 |
|
B. |
20 |
|
C. |
30 |
|
D. |
133.33 |
Given the following data, what is the Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD): Month Demand Forecast Jan 100...
Given the following history, use a three-quarter moving average to forecast the demand for the third quarter of this year. Note, the 1st quarter is Jan, Feb, and Mar; 2nd quarter Apr, May, Jun; 3rd quarter Jul, Aug, Sep; and 4th quarter Oct, Nov, Dec. JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Last year 170 200 210 240 250 270 225 215 215 275 280 300 This year 205 210 140 255 245 220 Forecast...
1. MAD for the naive forecast = ?? sales (round your response to two decimal places). 2. MAPE for the forecast developed by the naive approach = ?? % (round your response to two decimal places). b) Using the Naive Method, the forecast for period March through June is (round your response to two decimal places) Month Unit Sales Naive Forecast Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 102 97 95 110 124 119 95...
Day Demand Avg Jan 88 Fab 89.06666667 Mar 88.375 Apr 88.03225806 May 86.53125 Jun 81.87096774 Jul 79 Aug 80.125 Sep 83.61290323 Oct 88.5 Nov 89.29032258 Dec 90.21052632 Estimate the January forecast using Seasonal forecast. 12-month moving average forecast. Exponential smoothing (for an alpha of your choosing) Calculate the Mean Forecast Error (MFE), Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) and Mean Squared Error (MSE) and compare the results. Write a line or two explaining the superior model(s) for this particular data set including...
The human resources department needs to forecast the number of employees at a site. The data for several months is supplied below. Be careful since the data is listed beginning with the most recent. The forecasting method to be used here is the 7 month moving average. Please round your forecast to the nearest whole number Nov 2019: 956 Oct 2019: 1014 Sep 2019: 1009 Aug 2019: 963 Jul 2019: 966 Jun 2019: 1024 May 2019: 1045||Apr 2019: 1047 Mar...
find mape for naive approach S of Quilt covers Bud Bandiscount de March April May and June t store in Carbonde over the past year we shown below Management prepared forecasting a combination of exponential smoothing and its collective judgment for the Sep 95 Oct 110 Nov 120 Dec 119 Jan 92 95 Un sales Management's Forecast Feb 4 - Mar Apr 102 0 120 114 May 90 108 Jun 108 110 a) MAD for the forecast developed by the...
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ASSIGNMENT 2 (CLOI: PLO1: C3) 1. Based on the data given below, Month Demand Jan Feb Mac Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 37 40 41 37 4550434756 52 55 54 a) Calculate 4-period and 5-period moving average and forecast the demand in January next year. Which forecast gives the manager the best decision to use as (12 marks) b) the estimate for expenditure of a typical supplier. By giving your answers in 2 decimal places, forecast...
If there are any seasonality or relationship between the price and the US oil price? How to analyze? Jan-10 2.769 Jan-11 3.148 Jan-12 3.44 Jan-13 3.391 Jan-14 3.392 Feb-10 2.699 Feb-11 3.264 Feb-12 3.64 Feb-13 3.736 Feb-14 3.434 Mar-10 2.824 Mar-11 3.615 Mar-12 3.907 Mar-13 3.779 Mar-14 3.606 Apr-10 2.9 Apr-11 3.852 Apr-12 3.958 Apr-13 3.638 Apr-14 3.735 May-10 2.89 May-11 3.96 May-12 3.791 May-13 3.675 May-14 3.75 Jun-10 2.785 Jun-11 3.735 Jun-12 3.596 Jun-13 3.689 Jun-14 3.766 Jul-10 2.782...
1)Given the data in the table, calculate the four period moving average forecast for unemployment rate for October 2011. Express your result in percent, without the percent sign (e.g., 7.3 for 7.3%). Unemployment Year Month Rate (%) 2010 Oct 6.8 Nov 7.0 Dec 7.5 2011 Jan 8.0 Feb 8.2 Mar 8.5 Apr 8.6 May 8.6 Jun 8.9 Jul 9.1 Aug 8.8 Sep 8.7 Oct
Consider five years of monthly sales data for a company in the attached file (Q5.xlsx). a) Forecast monthly sales for the next year (2020). (10 marks) b) Discuss whether a simple exponential smoothing model works well with this data or not. (5 m 7 9 Month Sales 747 Feb-14 697 Mar-14 1014 Jan-14 Ap4 1126 May-14 1105 Jun-14 1450 Jul-14 1633 Aug-14 1711 Sep-14 1307 Oct-1223 Nov-14 9T5 Dec-14S53 4J-15 1024 Feb-15928 Mar-151442 7Apr-151371 May-15 1536 Ju15 2004 Jul-15 1854...