Homework Answers
MAPE is the mean average percentage error. This is calculated as below
1. Find the absolute error which is the difference between the forecast and the unit sales without considering the sign for the 4 months
2. Find the percentage error which is absolute error as a percentage of the units sales for the 4 months
3. Find the average of all the percentage errors. This will give MAPE
As Sales for March is 102 and Forecast is 84, absolute error is |102-84| = 18
As Sales for April is 94 and Forecast is 102, absolute error is |94-102| = 8
As Sales for May is 90 and Forecast is 94, absolute error is |90-94| = 4
As Sales for June is 108 and Forecast is 90, absolute error is |108-90| = 19
Percentage error for March is Absolute Error for March/Unit Sales for March = 18/102 = 17.65%
Percentage error for April is Absolute Error for April/Unit Sales for April = 8/94 = 8.51%
Percentage error for May is Absolute Error for May/Unit Sales for May = 4/90 = 4.44%
Percentage error for June is Absolute Error for June/Unit Sales for June = 18/108 = 16.67%
Hence MAPE = (17.65%+8.51%+4.44%+16.67%)/4 = 47.27%/4 = 11.82%
Hence MAPE for forecast developed by Naive Forecast is 11.82%
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find mape for naive approach
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