Question

International Machinery, Inc., produces a tractor and wishes to use quarterly tractor sales data observed in the last four years to predict quarterly tractor sales next year. The following MegaStat output gives the tractor sales data and the estimates of the seasonal factors and trend line for the data: Centered Moving Average Ratio to CMA Sales, y Year Quarter y = 19.95x + 220.54 R2 = 0.9965 own - ----NN Sales, y 293 392 221 147 388 512 287 184 479 640 347 223 581 755 410 266 275.125 302.000 325.250 338.125 354.125 381.500 Seasonal Indexes 1.191 1.521 0.804 0.484 1.191 1.521 0.804 0.484 Sales, y 0.803 0.487 1.193 1.514 0.810 0.482 1.183 1.533 0.798 0.483 1.199 1.517 Deseasonalized 245.9 257.7 275.0 303.9 325.7 336.6 357.1 380.4 402.0 420.7 431.8 461.0 487.7 496.3 510.2 549.9 4 12 16 mmmm 405.000 417.375 435.000 462.125 484.375 497.625 1.191 1.521 0.804 0.484 8 Quarter 1.191 1.521 0.804 0.484 --- Sales, y Deseasonalized - Linear (Deseasonalized) Calculation of Seasonal Indexes 2 0.487 0.803 0.810 0.798 0.482 0.483 1.193 1.183 1.199 1.192 1.191 1.514 1.533 1.517 1.522 1.521 mean: adjusted: 0.804 0.804 0.484 0.484 4.001 4.000 Click here for the Excel Data File Using the above output what is the equation of the estimated trend that has been calculated using the deseasonalized data? (Round your answers to 2 decimal places.)

Answer 1

From the given mega stat output of the tractor sales data

We have the equation of estimate trend is

trt = 220.54 + 19.95 t

As the time increase by 1year or quarter the sales of tractor increase by 19.95 units