Question

x suppose a System was·(served for long ~r.eel of hie and the daily neix demand and cRae汝아 Ho system was Yecor ded.Assume bote te daily maximm dem aud an norme → Estimate tle pr、babiłb of system Allure cie p Simalatvu .krfor m the analyss us iwj1。。。trials

Answer 1

## Simulation in R

nsim=1000
demand=rnorm(nsim,109,26)
capacity=rnorm(nsim,160,49)
s=0
for(i in 1:nsim)
{
if(demand[i]-capacity[i]>0)
s=s+1
}
failure_prob=s/nsim
print(failure_prob)

R Output

[1] 0.173

Actual probability is P(N(-51,SD=square root of 3077 =55.47071)>0)=0.1789421