Question

Forecast expected demand using the data given for lead-times of 1, 2, 6, and 12 along with a 90% confidence interval using each the following techniques. Experiment with any required forecasting parameters.

a. Moving average

b. Simple exponential smoothing

c. Holt’s model

d. Winter’s model

e. Which method is preferred?

Month	Demand
1	2000
2	3000
3	3000
4	3000
5	4000
6	6000
7	7000
8	6000
9	10000
10	12000
11	14000
12	8000
13	3000
14	4000
15	3000
16	5000
17	5000
18	8000
19	3000
20	8000
21	12000
22	12000
23	16000
24	10000
25	2000
26	5000
27	5000
28	3000
29	4000
30	6000
31	7000
32	10000
33	15000
34	15000
35	18000
36	8000
37	5000
38	4000
39	4000
40	2000
41	5000
42	7000
43	10000
44	14000
45	16000
46	16000
47	20000
48	12000
49	5000
50	2000
51	3000
52	2000
53	7000
54	6000
55	8000
56	10000
57	20000
58	20000
59	22000
60	8000

Answer 1