Answer 38:
Naive forecast value for the current month (i.e., April) = Actual Value for the Previous Month (i.e., March)
= $ 74.80 K (Option 1)
Answer 39:
Let,
At = Actual Value for the Month 't'
Then,
Ft = Forecast value using the three months simple moving averages method = (At-1 + At-2 + At-3 ) / 4
= (74.8 + 72.3 + 71.7) / 3
= $ 72.93 K (Option 2)
Answer 40:
Let,
At-1 = Actual income for the previous month
Ft-1 = Forecast income for the previous month
α = Alpha = 0.1 (As given in the question)
Ft = Simple exponential smoothing forecast for the current month = Ft-1 + α (At-1 - Ft-1)
Note: As no specific information is mentioned in the question for the forecast value of the first month (i.e., Oct), we assume it the same as the actual value of that month = 69.3 K
Thus, we get:
Calculations:
Hence, the correct answer to the given question = Option 5
Answer 41:
Step 1: Find the mean values for both the variables:
Where x = Independent Variable = No. of a particular month and y = Dependent Variable = Income ($ K)
Step 2: Find the three columns as mentioned below:
Where,
xy = x * y
x2 = x * x
y2 = y * y
Step 3: Find the value of byx:
Step 4: Find the linear trend equation:
Step 5:
Now, take x = 7 in the linear trend equation as obtained in the previous step:
∴ y = 1.1686 (7) + 66.9267
= $ 75.11 K (Rounded to 2 decimal places) (Option 4)
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