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If households expect a recession will come soon, will this increase the natural rate of unemployment?...

  1. If households expect a recession will come soon, will this increase the natural rate of unemployment? Explain.
  2. A recession really occurs, but unemployment rate decreases. Explain how this can be possible.

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Answer #1

Since natural rate of unemployment takes into account only frictional and structural unemployment and not cyclical unemployment, the anticipation of recession as business cycle will not increase natural rate of unemployment.

Recession occurs however unemployment decreases because government reacts fatser by stimulating economic growth and injecting liquidity which helps firms to hire more. Moreover, even central banks infuses money supply which helps lower unemployment as hiring activity kicks up.

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