Question

There is a common cliche related to performance analysis: "You're only as good as your last success." (Or last sale, game, deal, etc.). The idea is that we tend to judge based only on someone's immediate past performance. If you're on, you're great, but if you have a bad outcome, you're washed up. Chapter 4 of Superforecasting makes the point that even superstars are not infallible, thus, we shouldn't judge based only on immediate past performance. How do we develop a way of assessing forecasting performance that is responsive to results, but not completely driven by accurately forecasting a particular event? (As discussed in chapter 3, this is not as easy as it sounds. Given typical cognitive biases, we tend to judge as 'wrong' the weather forecaster who tells us that there is a 70% chance of rain if it doesn't rain, while this is not necessarily evidence that the forecast was incorrect). As forecasters how do we avoid being judged based only on our last forecast's prediction?

Answer 1

answer-

Forecasting and performance analysis are both management concept in which we analyze and measure the performance of employees and make our judgement based on that and forecast the decision based on that performance.

for example- if in weather company, there is a weather forecaster who is predicting the weather for last 2 years accurately and there is one time currently his prediction got wrong so his image got up side down because his recent failure in prediction outweight the all the right prediction done in the passed and his performance is assessed based on that bad performance.

in such situation, we as forecaster can avoid being judged by doing the right prediction and give our best in prediction. what we can do is to remember and let others to remember what are our last accurate prediction and show them that we as human can also do mistakes. we can not predict everything right as we are not God.

people in organization and outside organization see try to see our failures not our achievements so it is on us to show them we failed this time but we also have success in past by predicting right. we can also make right prediction in future.