Question

The following table shows the actual demand observed over the last 11 years: Year 3 4 6 8 9 10 11 1 2 7 Demand 10 6 11 9 12 12 10 8 6 7 0.30 and a forecast for year 1 of 5.0, provide the forecast from periods 2 through 12 (round your responses to one decimal Using exponential smoothing with place) Year 1 3 4 6 8 10 12 2 5 7 9 11 Forecast 5.0 Provide the forecast from periods 2 through 12 using the naive approach (enter your responses as whole numbers). Year 2 4 6 9 10 12 3 5 7 8 11 Forecast

Answer 1

1. EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING

F(t) = F(t-1) + (Alpha * (A(t-1) - F(t-1)))

FORECAST 2 = 5 + (0.3 * (6 - 5)) = 5.3

FORECAST 3 = 5.3 + (0.3 * (10 - 5.3)) = 6.7

FORECAST 4 = 6.7 + (0.3 * (6 - 6.7)) = 6.5

FORECAST 5 = 6.5 + (0.3 * (7 - 6.5)) = 6.7

FORECAST 6 = 6.7 + (0.3 * (11 - 6.7)) = 8

FORECAST 7 = 8 + (0.3 * (9 - 8)) = 8.3

FORECAST 8 = 8.3 + (0.3 * (12 - 8.3)) = 9.4

FORECAST 9 = 9.4 + (0.3 * (12 - 9.4)) = 10.2

FORECAST 10 = 10.2 + (0.3 * (10 - 10.2)) = 10.1

FORECAST 11 = 10.1 + (0.3 * (9 - 10.1)) = 9.8

FORECAST 12 = 9.8 + (0.3 * (8 - 9.8)) = 9.3

NAIVE FORECAST

FORECAST = DEMAND FOR LAST PERIOD

PERIOD	DEMAND	FORECAST
1	6
2	10	6
3	6	10
4	7	6
5	11	7
6	9	11
7	12	9
8	12	12
9	10	12
10	9	10
11	8	9
12		8