Question

As you can see in the following table demand for at transplant surgery at Washington General Hospital has increased headly in the past few years Heart Transplants 480 500 530 560 580 The director of medical services predicted 6 years ago that demand in year 1 would be 44.0 surgeries a) Using exponential smoothing with a of 0.60 and the given forecast for year 1, the forecasts for years through 6 are fround your responses to one decimal place: Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 Forecast 44. 0 0 For the forecast made using exponential smoothing with a 0.60 and the given forecast to year 1, MAD- surgeries fround your response to one decimal place) Using exponential smoothing with a of 0.90 and the given forecast for year 1, the forecast for years through 6 are fround your responses to one decimal place) Forecast 44, 0 DI For the forecast made using exponential smoothing with a 0.90 and the given forecast for your 1, MAD- surgeries fround your response to one decimal place). b) Forecasts for years through 6 using a 3 year moving average are found your responses to one decimal place) Year 4 5 Forecast D O O For forecasts made using a 3 year moving average, MD - surgeries (round your response to one decimale) :) Forecast for years through using the trend projection method are found your responses to one del place mter your answer in each of the answer boxes

Answer 1

Answer a.1: Forecast through 2 to 6 using alpha = 0.6

t	Demand, At	Ft, Exponential Smoothing
1	48	44
2	50	46.4
3	53	48.6
4	56	51.2
5	58	54.1
6		56.4

• the formula to be used in Simple Exponential smoothing is

F_t+1= alpha*A_t + (1-alpha) F_t

A_t means Actual demand of t'th period, if you want to find out the Forecast through exponential smoothing= forecast of 3rd period = alpha*actual demand of 2nd period +(1-alpha) *forecast demand of 2nd period

• remember forecast of 1st period is 44, alpha= 0.6

Answer a.2:

t	Demand, At	Ft, Exponential Smoothing	Absolute deviation= |Forecast - Actual|
1	48	44	4.00
2	50	46.4	3.60
3	53	48.6	4.44
4	56	51.2	4.78
5	58	54.1	3.91
6		56.4
			4.15
			MAD

Formula used:

Absolute deviation= |Forecast - Sales|

MAD= mean absolute deviation= sum of absolute deviation/no. of periods

MAD= 4.2

Answer a.3: Forecast through 2 to 6 using alpha = 0.9

t	Demand, At	Ft, Exponential Smoothing
1	48	44
2	50	47.6
3	53	49.8
4	56	52.7
5	58	55.7
6		57.8

Answer a.4:

t	Demand, At	Ft, Exponential Smoothing	Absolute deviation= |Forecast - Actual|
1	48	44	4.00
2	50	47.6	2.40
3	53	49.8	3.24
4	56	52.7	3.32
5	58	55.7	2.33
6		57.8
			3.06
			MAD

MAD= 3.1