Question

As you can see in the following table, demand for heart transplant surgery at Washington General Hospital has increased steadily in the past few years: Year 1 , Year 2 , Year 3, Year 4, Year 5, Year 6: 48, 50. 53, 54, 60? The director of medical services predicted 6 years ago that demand in 1 year would be 41 surgeries. a) Use exponential smoothing, first with a smoothing constant of .6 and then with one of .9 , to develop forecasts for years 2 through 6. b) Use a 3 year moving average to forecast demand in years 4, 5 and 6. c) Use the trend Projection method to forecast demand in years 1 through 6 d) with MAD as the criterion, which of the four forecasting methods is best.

Answer 1

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