Question

as ( Homework: HW 2: Forecast II Save Score: 0 of 1 pt elati 4 of 14 (7 complete) Problem 4.13 HW Score: 40.44%, 6.07 of 15 pts Question Help nom As you can see in the following table, demand for heart transplant surgery at Washington General Hospital has increased steadily in the past few years ds 3 4 5 Year 1 2 Heart Transplants 450 500 520 540 580 The director of medical services predicted 6 years ago that demand in year 1 would be 410 surgeries a) Using exponential smoothing with a of 0.60 and the given forecast for year 1, the forecasts for years 2 through 6 are (round your responses to one decimal place) 5 ch-11 Flas 1 2 3 4 6 Year Forecast 410 tho fficie es; ions

Answer 1

Exponential Smoothing Formula:

Ft = αΑt-1 + (1-α)Ft-1

Where,

Ft = forecasting demand for week t

α = smoothing constant (0.60)

Αt-1 = the actual demand of the previous period

Ft-1 = the forecast demand of the previous period

The forecast for:

    Year                 Forecast

1                     41.1 (given)

      2    Ft = αΑt-1 + (1-α)Ft-1

= (0.60 × 45.0) + (0.40 × 41.0)

                            = 27 + 16.4

                           = 43.4

     3                     = (0.60 × 50.0) + (0.40 × 43.4)                 

                            = 30 + 17.4

                            = 47.4

     4                     = (0.60 × 52.0) + (0.40 × 47.4)                 

                             = 31.2 + 19

                             = 50.2

   5                      = (0.60 × 54.0) + (0.40 × 50.2)                 

                             = 32.4 + 20.1

                             = 52.5

     6                      = (0.60 × 58.0) + (0.40 × 52.5)                 

                             = 34.8 + 21

                             = 55.8