Question

Period 2 3 4 5 6 3 Period Moving Average 4 Period Moving Average Observation Forecast Error Error A2 Abs Error Forecast Exponential Smoothing Error Error 2 Abs Error Forecast Error 86 Error A2 Abs Error 85 Assume FAI 80 81 86 89 95 88 91 92 88 96 MSE MSE MSE MAD MAD Alpha 02 8 9 10 11 12 13 MAD According to MSE, what is the best forecasting model to MAD, what is the best forecasting model

Answer 1

FILE HOME INSERT PAGE LAYOUT FORMULAS DATA REVIEW VIEW Sign in J23 А B D E F G H - J к L M N O P Q R S 3 5 abs error 3 3 month moving average 4 month moving average exponential smoothing Ft+1 = aAt + (1-a)Ft period observation forecast error error 12 Jabs error forecast error error 12 abs error forecast error error ^2 3 86 86.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Assume F1 = A1 2 85 86.00 -1.00 1.00 1.00 80 85.80 -5.80 33.64 5.80 4 81 83.67 -2.67 7.11 2.67 84.64 -3.64 13.25 3.64 0 5 86 82.00 4.00 16.00 4.00 83.00 3.00 9.00 3.00 83.91 2.09 4.36 2.09 1 61 89 82.33 6.67 44.44 6.67 83.00 6.00 36.00 6.00 84.33 4.67 21.81 4.67 2 7 95 85.33 9.67 93.44 9.67 84.00 11.00 121.00 11.00 85.26 9.74 94.80 9.74 3 8 88 90.00 -2.00 4.00 2.00 87.75 0.25 0.06 0.25 87.21 0.79 0.62 0.79 4 9 91 90.67 0.33 0.11 0.33 89.50 1.50 2.25 1.50 87.37 3.63 13.19 3.63 5 10 92 91.33 0.67 0.44 0.67 90.75 1.25 1.56 1.25 88.10 3.90 15.25 3.90 11 88 90.33 -2.33 5.44 2.33 91.50 -3.50 12.25 3.50 88.88 0.77 0.88 7 12 96 90.33 5.67 32.11 5.67 89.75 6.25 39.06 6.25 88.70 7.30 53.28 7.30 8 13 92.00 90.16 9 MSE 22.57 MSE 27.65 MSE 21.00 0 MAD 3.78 MAD 4.09 MAD 3.29 1 Alpha = 0.2 2. 3. According to MSE the best forecasting model is exponential smoothing 4 According to MAD the best forecasting model is exponential smoothing -5 Activate Windows Sheet1 Go to Settings to activate Windows -0.88 91.75

error = actual demand - forecast absolute error = | actual demand forecast | error square = error ^2 MAD = average of all absolute errors MSE = average of all error squares based on MSE the less the MSE better the model based on MAD the less the MAD better the model