Question

Homework #6 NAME: (State numerical answers #1 Use the leffersonCommunityCollege data set to answer the following questions. #1.1 The 3-period Moving Average forecast for Period 10 is #1.2 The 5-period Moving Average forecast for Period 10 is The MSE, MAE, and MAPE scores for the 3-period and 5-period Moving Average models are: Section: 9:30 12:30 Also put your name on the top of the back of the page Circle one. to four decimal places) 3-period Moving Average S-period Moving Average MSE MAE MAPE #1.3 The alphas 0.5 Exponential Smoothing forecast for Period 10 is #1.4 The alpha-0.9 Exponential Smoothing forecast for Period 10 is #1.5 The MSE scores for the 0.5 and 0.9 Exponential Smoothing models are: 0.5 Exponential Smoothing 0.9 Exponential Smoothing MSE #1.6 The linear regression forecast for Period 10 is #1.7 The MSE score for the Linear Regression model is #1.8 The MSE-better forecast for the foregoing Moving Average models is #1.9 The MSE-better forecast for the foregoing Exponential Smoothing models is #1.10 The MSE-best model among the foregoing Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing, and Linear Regression models is because

Answer 1

We will use MINITAB software to answer this question,

1) using 3 period MA the forecast for period 10 is 16.3333  .

2) using 5 period MA the forecast for period 10 is 14.96  .

Moving Average Plot for period 3 Variable 22.5 -Fits 20.0 -95.0% PI 17.5 Moving Average Length3 Accuracy Measures MAPE 21.6917 MAD 3.0278 MSD 9.7457 15.0 12.5 10.0 7.5 5.0 1 2 34 5 6 78 9 10 Index

Moving Average Plot for period 5 Variable -Fits -95.0% PI 20 Moving Average Length5 Accuracy Measures MAPE 28.2888 MAD 44150 15 MSD 20.2401 10 1 2 34 5 6 78 9 10 Index

3) using alpha=0.5 forecast for period 10 is 16.5729  

4) using alpha=0.9 forecast for period 10 is 17.9745  

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