Question

Please EXPLAIN and solve in a very simple way. Thanks!

Ritz Products's materials manager, Tej Dhakar, must determine whether to make or buy a new semiconductor for the wrist TV that the firm is about to produce. One million units are expected to be produced over the life cycle. If the product is made, start-up and production costs of the make decision total $1 million,with a probability of 0.5 that the product will be satisfactory and a 0.5 probability that it will not. If the product is not satisfactory, the firm will have to reevaluate the decision. If the decision is reevaluated, the choice will be whether to spend another $1 million to redesign the semiconductor or to purchase. Likelihood of success the second time that the make decision is made is 0.7 If the second make decision also fails, the firm must purchase. Regardless of when the purchase takes place, Dhakar's best judgment of cost is that Ritz will pay $0.6 for each purchased semiconductor plus million in vendor development cost.

a) Assuming that Ritz must have the semiconductor (stopping or doing without is not a viable option), what is the best decision?

The firm should ___ the semiconductors because this decision has an expected cost of $ __ (Enter your response as an integer .)

Answer 1

Decision Tree with calculations (all figures are in $ million)

Product satisfactory $0 0.50 0.00 Success -$2 0.00 Make S0 0.70 -$1 0.00 1.74S0.74 Redesig $1 1.00 $1.48 x 0.5+ 0x 0.5 -$0.74 1.480.48 Failure Purchase -$3.6 0.00 Product unsatisfactory S0 0.50 $1.6 x 0.30+0 x 0.7 --$0.48 $0 0.30 $1.6 1.00 $1.6 $1.48 $1.6 Max. (-$1.48, -$1.6) $1.48 Purchase $2.6 0.00 Max.(-$1.74, -$1.6) $1.6 0.00 $1.6 Purchase Optimal decision $1.6 1.00 1.00 1 million x $0.6 - $1 million

The firm should purchase the semiconductors because this decision has an expected cost of $1,600,000