(a)
Forecast |
112.5 |
121.5 |
123.1667 |
125.6667 |
127.3333 |
136 |
136.3333 |
(b)
8.595238 | 103.504 | 06.41% |
MAD | MSE | MAPE |
(c)
134.58 |
(d)
10.44092 |
MAD |
No
(e)
Forecast | 146.4 |
The calculations are:
Data | Weighted moving averages - 3 period moving average | Forecasts and Error Analysis | ||||||
Period | Demand | Weights | Forecast | Error | Absolute | Squared | Abs Pct Err | |
Period 1 | 105 | 0.5 | 3 periods ago | |||||
Period 2 | 119 | 0.33 | 2 periods ago | |||||
Period 3 | 122 | 0.166667 | 1 periods ago | |||||
Period 4 | 128 | 112.5 | 15.5 | 15.5 | 240.25 | 12.11% | ||
Period 5 | 117 | 121.5 | -4.5 | 4.5 | 20.25 | 03.85% | ||
Period 6 | 136 | 123.1667 | 12.83333 | 12.83333 | 164.6944 | 09.44% | ||
Period 7 | 141 | 125.6667 | 15.33333 | 15.33333 | 235.1111 | 10.87% | ||
Period 8 | 126 | 127.3333 | -1.33333 | 1.333333 | 1.777778 | 01.06% | ||
Period 9 | 143 | 136 | 7 | 7 | 49 | 04.90% | ||
Period 10 | 140 | 136.3333 | 3.666667 | 3.666667 | 13.44444 | 02.62% | ||
Total | 48.5 | 60.16667 | 724.5278 | 44.84% | ||||
Average | 6.928571 | 8.595238 | 103.504 | 06.41% | ||||
Bias | MAD | MSE | MAPE | |||||
SE | 12.03767 | |||||||
Next period | 134 |
Alpha | 0.3 | Exponential Smoothing | |||||
Data | Forecasts and Error Analysis | ||||||
Period | Demand | Forecast | Error | Absolute | Squared | Abs Pct Err | |
Period 1 | 105 | 105 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 00.00% | |
Period 2 | 119 | 105 | 14 | 14 | 196 | 11.76% | |
Period 3 | 122 | 109.2 | 12.8 | 12.8 | 163.84 | 10.49% | |
Period 4 | 128 | 113.04 | 14.96 | 14.96 | 223.8016 | 11.69% | |
Period 5 | 117 | 117.528 | -0.528 | 0.528 | 0.278784 | 00.45% | |
Period 6 | 136 | 117.3696 | 18.6304 | 18.6304 | 347.0918 | 13.70% | |
Period 7 | 141 | 122.9587 | 18.04128 | 18.04128 | 325.4878 | 12.80% | |
Period 8 | 126 | 128.3711 | -2.3711 | 2.371104 | 5.622134 | 01.88% | |
Period 9 | 143 | 127.6598 | 15.34023 | 15.34023 | 235.3226 | 10.73% | |
Period 10 | 140 | 132.2618 | 7.738159 | 7.738159 | 59.87911 | 0.0552726 | |
Total | 98.61096 | 104.4092 | 1557.324 | 79.03% | |||
Average | 9.861096 | 10.44092 | 155.7324 | 07.90% | |||
Bias | MAD | MSE | MAPE | ||||
SE | 13.95226 | ||||||
Next period | 134.58 |
Data | Simple linear regression | Forecasts and Error Analysis | ||||||
Period | Demand (y) | Period(x) | Forecast | Error | Absolute | Squared | Abs Pct Err | |
Period 1 | 105 | 1 | 112.4 | -7.4 | 7.4 | 54.76 | 07.05% | |
Period 2 | 119 | 2 | 115.8 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 10.24 | 02.69% | |
Period 3 | 122 | 3 | 119.2 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 7.84 | 02.30% | |
Period 4 | 128 | 4 | 122.6 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 29.16 | 04.22% | |
Period 5 | 117 | 5 | 126 | -9 | 9 | 81 | 07.69% | |
Period 6 | 136 | 6 | 129.4 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 43.56 | 04.85% | |
Period 7 | 141 | 7 | 132.8 | 8.2 | 8.2 | 67.24 | 05.82% | |
Period 8 | 126 | 8 | 136.2 | -10.2 | 10.2 | 104.04 | 08.10% | |
Period 9 | 143 | 9 | 139.6 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 11.56 | 02.38% | |
Period 10 | 140 | 10 | 143 | -3 | 3 | 9 | 02.14% | |
Total | 0 | 59.2 | 418.4 | 47.23% | ||||
Intercept | 109 | Average | 0 | 5.92 | 41.84 | 04.72% | ||
Slope | 3.4 | Bias | MAD | MSE | MAPE | |||
SE | 7.231874 | |||||||
Forecast | 146.4 | 11 | ||||||
Correlation | 0.833706 | |||||||
Coefficient of determination | 0.695066 |
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