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A toy company is developing a new toy drone controlled by hand gestures. They are pretty...

A toy company is developing a new toy drone controlled by hand gestures. They are pretty early in the development process. Based on past experience with similar development projects, they believe that there is a 0.6 probability of getting the toy through the development process and introduced into the market. If the toy makes it to market, there is a 0.4 probability of the product actually being a success. What is the overall probability of being successful at this stage, given that the product may never actually make it to market?

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Answer #1

P(Introduced to Market) = P(M) = 0.6

P(Success | Market) = 0.4

P(Success Market) P(Success|Market) = = P(Market)

0.4 = P(Success n Market) 0.6

0.4*0.6 = P(Success Market)

P(Success n Market) = 0.24

Hence at this stage there is 0.24 probability of being successful.

Please comment if any doubt. Thank you.

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