Question

Consider the following time series data.

t	1	2	3	4	5
Yt	6	12	9	14	16

a. Which of the following is a correct time series plot for this data?

time series plot #1

time series plot #2

time series plot #3

1.
2.
3.

What type of pattern exists in the data?

linear trend

curvilinear trend

horizontal

b. Develop the linear trend equation for this time series (to 1 decimal).

Tt = ___ + ____t

c. What is the forecast for t=6 (to 1 decimal)?

Answer 1

a
)

2345

type of pattern exists in the data : linear trend

b)

1 29.16 12 0.36 3 (x-x) 4.0000 1.0000 0.0000 10000 4.0000 10.0000 SSX 14 16 5.76 6.76 21.16 63.20 SSY 57 Total Mean 3.000 11.40 sample size: n= here y 11.4000 3.0000 SM IX-X) (X-X|Y:-Y)= slope Sxy/Sxx intercepto - リーマー Least square line equation: y =4.8+2.2 x Su 10.000 22.000 2.20000 4.80000

from above

Tt =4.8+2.2t

c)

predicted val=4.8+6*2.2=

18.000