Question

Consider the following time series data. Week Value 1 16 2 14 3 15 4 12 5 16 6 13 (a) Choose the correct time series plot. (1) Time Series Value 5 6 4 Week (t) Time Series Value 1 2 3 5 4 Week (t)

Answer 1

valve forecast Romor forecast Boror- Ans: a Graph i mo anel Tis patterns pattern and it is pattern is (horizontal (6) Moving Average ? tope cast forecast absolute Week Senies Sawane Bogor 16 2 ly 3 15 12 15.00 151 16 3 g 13.67 I 2.33 2.33 16 | 13 5.43 | 14.33 -1.33 T 1.33 1.77 Tolal 16.2 . MSE = 16.2 n 5.41 and the forecast for week 7: 12416413 Exponential Smoothing: - 3 = [13:67 Time Series e forecast for Geek forecast Absolute Value swared of forecast force cast Byron Error Ivalue 2 | 14 | 16.00 -2.00 2.00 4.00 3 | 15 | 15.60 -0.60 0.60 0.36 AT 12 14.20 -2.20 2.20 4.84 5 | 16 | 14.40 1.60 1.60 2.56 6 13 12.80 0.20 0.20 0:04 Tolal 11.8 therefore, MSE 178 - 12.36] The forecast for week 7 is : f = 0.2 x 13+(1–0.2) x 12.80 12.84 (d) Exponential Smoothing Bxplain: The exponential smoothing forecast using & .0.2 Provides a better fore east than moving arepase Since, it has a small ep MSE.