Consider the following time series data.
Week | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
Value | 16 | 14 | 16 | 11 | 17 | 14 |
Develop a three-week moving average for this time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week 7. |
Week | Value | Forecast |
1 | 16 | |
2 | 14 | |
3 | 16 | |
4 | 11 | |
5 | 17 | |
6 | 14 |
Use trial and error to find a value of the exponential smoothing
coefficient α that results in a smaller MSE than what you
calculated for α = 0.20. Use a two-decimal digit
precision.
Alpha =
3 week | ||||
Time period | Actual Value(A) | Moving avg. Forecast(F) | Forecast error E=|A-F| | Squared Forecast Error |
1 | 16 | |||
2 | 14 | |||
3 | 16 | |||
4 | 11 | 15.33 | 4.33 | 18.78 |
5 | 17 | 13.67 | 3.33 | 11.11 |
6 | 14 | 14.67 | 0.67 | 0.44 |
Total | 8.33 | 30.33 | ||
Average | 2.78 | 10.11 | ||
MAD | MSE |
MSE = 10.11
Week 7 Forecast= 14
from trail and error the value which result in minimum MSE =0.13
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