Homework Answers
b)
| Time period | Actual Value(A) | Moving avg. Forecast(F) | Forecast error E=|A-F| | Squared Forecast Error | MAPE |
| 1 | 18 | ||||
| 2 | 14 | ||||
| 3 | 17 | ||||
| 4 | 12 | 16.33 | 4.33 | 18.78 | 0.3611 |
| 5 | 17 | 14.33 | 2.67 | 7.11 | 0.1569 |
| 6 | 15 | 15.33 | 0.33 | 0.11 | 0.0222 |
| Total | 7.33 | 26.00 | 0.1791 | ||
| Average | 2.44 | 8.67 | 8.95% | ||
| MAD | MSE | MAPE | |||
| MSE = | 8.67 | ||||
| forecast for week 7 = | 14.67 | ||||
c)
| α= | 0.2 | |||
| Time period | Actual Value(A) | Forecast(F) | Forecast error E=A-F | Squared Forecast Error |
| 1 | 18 | |||
| 2 | 14 | 18.00 | 4.00 | 16.00 |
| 3 | 17 | 17.20 | 0.20 | 0.04 |
| 4 | 12 | 17.16 | 5.16 | 26.63 |
| 5 | 17 | 16.13 | 0.87 | 0.76 |
| 6 | 15 | 16.30 | 1.30 | 1.70 |
| Total | 11.53 | 45.12 | ||
| Average | 2.31 | 9.02 | ||
| MAD | MSE | |||
| MSE = | 9.02 | |||
| forecast for week 7 = | 16.04 | |||
d)
| The three-month moving average provides a better forecast since it has a smaller MSE |
e)
MSE =8.65
f)
provides a better.........
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