Question

Consider the following time series data Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 Value 19 14 16 12 18 15 a. Which of the following is a correct time series plot for this data? 1 Time eries Value 15 10 Week 2 TimeSeries Value 15 10 5 Week 4 3 TimeSeries Value 15 10 -5 Week 4 5 Select your answer What type of pattern exists in the data?

Answer 1

a) plot 1

horizontal

b)

Time period	Actual Value(A)	Moving avg. Forecast(F)	Forecast error E=|A-F|	Squared Forecast Error
1	19
2	14
3	16
4	12	16.33	4.33	18.78
5	18	14.00	4.00	16.00
6	15	15.33	0.33	0.11
		Total	8.67	34.89
		Average	2.89	11.63
			MAD	MSE
MSE =			11.63
forecast for week 7 =			15.00

c)

Time period	Actual Value(A)	Forecast(F)	Forecast error E=A-F	Squared Forecast Error
1	19
2	14	19.00	5.00	25.00
3	16	18.00	2.00	4.00
4	12	17.60	5.60	31.36
5	18	16.48	1.52	2.31
6	15	16.78	1.78	3.18
		Total	15.90	65.85
		Average	3.18	13.17
			MAD	MSE
MSE =			13.17
forecast for week 7 =			16.42

d)

The three-month moving average provides a better forecast since it has a smaller MSE

e)

MSE = 11.75

provides a better forecast,,,,,,,