Consider the following time series data.
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||
- Select your answer -Graph (i)Graph (ii)Graph (iii)Graph (iv)Item 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
What type of pattern exists in the data? | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
- Select your answer -Horizontal PatternTrend PatternItem 2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
(b) | Develop a three-week moving average for this time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week 7. | |||||||||||||||||||||||
If required, round your answers to two decimal places. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||
MSE: | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
The forecast for week 7: | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
(c) | Use α = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing values for the time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week 7. | |||||||||||||||||||||||
If required, round your answers to two decimal places. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||
MSE: | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
The forecast for week 7: | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
(d) | Compare the three-week moving average forecast with the exponential smoothing forecast using α = 0.2. Which appears to provide the better forecast based on MSE? | |||||||||||||||||||||||
- Select your answer -Three-week moving averageExponential SmoothingItem 15 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Explain. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
The input in the box below will not be graded, but may be reviewed and considered by your instructor. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
(e) | Use trial and error to find a value of the exponential smoothing coefficient α that results in a smaller MSE than what you calculated for α = 0.20. Use a two-decimal digit precision. | |||||||||||||||||||||||
alpha: |
(a) The time series plot is:
Graph (iii)
Horizontal Pattern
(b)
Week | Value | Forecast | Error² |
1 | 17 | ||
2 | 13 | ||
3 | 15 | ||
4 | 11 | 15 | 16 |
5 | 15 | 13 | 4 |
6 | 13 | 13.66667 | 0.444444 |
7 | 13 | ||
MSE | 6.81 |
MSE = 6.81
The forecast for week 7 = 13
(c)
Week | Value | Forecast | Error² |
1 | 17 | ||
2 | 13 | 17 | 16 |
3 | 15 | 16.2 | 1.44 |
4 | 11 | 15.96 | 24.6016 |
5 | 15 | 14.968 | 0.001024 |
6 | 13 | 14.9744 | 3.898255 |
7 | 14.58 | ||
MSE | 9.19 |
MSE = 9.19
The forecast for week 7 = 14.58
(d) Three-week moving average
MSE is lower for a Three-week moving average.
(e) Alpha = 0.3
Week | Value | Forecast | Error² |
1 | 17 | ||
2 | 13 | 17 | 16 |
3 | 15 | 15.8 | 0.64 |
4 | 11 | 15.56 | 20.7936 |
5 | 15 | 14.192 | 0.652864 |
6 | 13 | 14.4344 | 2.057503 |
7 | 14.00408 | ||
MSE | 8.03 |
Please give me a thumbs-up if this helps you out. Thank you!
Consider the following time series data. Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 Value 17 13...
Consider the following time series data. Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 Value 19 11 16 1017 15 (a) Construct a time series plot. 20 20 20 18 16 14 12 10 c 14 12 12 0 23 4 5 67 0 23 4 5 67 Week Weck Week 20 18 0 1 2345 6 7 Week What type of pattern exists in the data? The data appear to follow a seasonal pattern. The data appear to follow a...
Consider the following time series data. Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 Value 19 14 17 12 17 14 Develop a three-week moving average for this time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week 7. Round your answers to two decimal places. Week Time Series Value Forecast 1 19 2 14 3 17 4 12 5 17 6 14 MSE: The forecast for week 7: Use = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing values for the time series....
Please help Consider the following time series data. Week 1 N 3 4 5 6 Value 19 11 13 10 14 12 (a) Construct a time series plot. 20 18 20 18 14 12 10 Week 3 4 Week D 20 18+ 16 Time Series Value Time Series Value 5 Week 0 Wook What type of pattem exists in the data? The data appear to follow a cyclical pattern. The data appear to follow a trend pattem. The data appear...
Consider the following time series data. Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 Value 16 14 16 11 17 14 Develop a three-week moving average for this time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week 7. Week Value Forecast 1 16 2 14 3 16 4 11 5 17 6 14 MSE = Week 7 Forecast= Use trial and error to find a value of the exponential smoothing coefficient α that results in a smaller MSE than what you...
Consider the following time series data Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 Value 19 14 16 12 18 15 a. Which of the following is a correct time series plot for this data? 1 Time eries Value 15 10 Week 2 TimeSeries Value 15 10 5 Week 4 3 TimeSeries Value 15 10 -5 Week 4 5 Select your answer What type of pattern exists in the data? What type of pattern exists in the data? Horizontal b. Develop...
Consider the following time series data. Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 Value 19 13 16 12 18 14 a. Which of the following is a correct time series plot for this data? - Select your answer -plot #1plot #2plot #3Item 1 What type of pattern exists in the data? - Select your answer -VerticalHorizontalScatterItem 2 b. Develop the three-week moving average forecasts for this time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week (to 2 decimals if necessary)....
Homework Consider the following time series data. Week Value a. Which of the following is a correct time series plot for this data? 1 18 2 14 3 17 4 12 5 17 6 15 TimeSeries Value 115 Week TimeSeries Value 3 4 5 Week 2 TimeSeries Value 15 3 4 . 5 Week plot #1 What type of pattern exists in the data? Horizontal a Search this course mework Week plot 01 What type of pattern exists in the...
omework Consider the following time series data Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Value 21 14 18 13 18 21 14 a. Which of the following is a correct time series plot for this data? や" -Select your answer- What type of pattern exists in the data? -select your answer- b. Develop the three-month moving average forecasts for this time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for month 8 (to 2 decimals if necessary). Enter negative values as...
Consider the following time series data: Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Value 24 13 21 14 20 23 15 (c) Use α = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing values for the time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for month 8. If required, round your answers to two decimal places. Do not round intermediate calculation. MSE: The forecast for month 8: (e) Use trial and error to find a value of the exponential smoothing coefficient α...
Problem 08-06 Algo (Moving Averages and Exponential Smoothing) Consider the following time series data: Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Value 23 13 21 13 19 21 17 (a) Choose the correct time series plot Month (iv) Month Select your answer What type of pattern exists in the data? Select your answer- (b) Develop a three-month moving average for this time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for month 8. If required, round your answers to two decimal...