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Estimating the Effect of Fiscal Policy on Output Suppose an economist finds that government spending is...

Estimating the Effect of Fiscal Policy on Output

Suppose an economist finds that government spending is negatively correlated with output growth. That is, in periods in which government spending is greater than normal that output growth is, on average, relatively low and in periods in which government spending is less than normal that output growth is, on average, relatively high. Should we take this as evidence against a Keynesian model in which an increase in government spending leads to an increase in output? Explain your answer.

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