Question

Consider the following time series data.

Week 1 2 3 4 5 6
Value 19 12 16 10 17 15

Using the naïve method (most recent value) as the forecast for the next week, compute the following measures of forecast accuracy:

Mean absolute error (MAE)
Mean squared error (MSE)
Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE)

Round your answers to two decimal places.

MAE =

MSE =

MAPE =

Using the average of all the historical data as a forecast for the next period, compute the same three values. Round your answers to two decimal places.

MAE =

MSE =

MAPE =

Which method appears to provide the more accurate forecasts for the historical data?

Answer 1