Question

For the Hawkins Company, the monthly percentages of all shipments received on time over the past 12 months are 80, 82, 84, 83, 83, 84, 85, 84, 82, 83, 84, and 83.

(a)	Choose the correct time series plot.
	(i) $cameba02h.p8-11_g1.JPG$ (ii) $cameba02h.p8-11_g2.JPG$         (iii) $cameba02h.p8-11_g3.JPG$ (iv) $cameba02h.p8-11_g4.JPG$
	- Select your answer -Plot (i)Plot (ii)Plot (iii)Plot (iv)
	What type of pattern exists in the data?
	- Select your answer -Horizontal Pattern OR Trend Pattern
(b)	Compare a three-month moving average forecast with an exponential smoothing forecast for α = 0.2. Which provides the better forecasts using MSE as the measure of model accuracy?
	Do not round your interim computations and round your final answers to three decimal places.
	Moving Average Exponential smoothing MSE= =
	- Select your answer -Moving Average OR Exponential smoothing
(c)	What is the forecast for next month?
	If required, round your answer to two decimal places.

Answer 1

a)

Select your answer - Plot (iii)

What type of pattern exists in the data? -Horizontal Pattern

b)

for Moving Average MSE =1.235

for Exponential smoothing MSE =3.555

Moving Average is better

c)

forecast for next month =(83+84+83)/3=83.33