Question

what is the technology forecasting method name for the market structure?

Answer 1

Technology forecasting is a case study paper that describes the ways to forecast the sales of software technology product families. Based on the excerpt given in this question, it is cleared that every author has a different method to forecast the different software products. Given below are the method used for the forecast:-

a)Multivariate multiple regression method which is used for modeling the evolution of the operating model.

b)Lotka-Volterra method employs the estimation of parameters using genetic algorithms for forecasting.

c)The concept of Entropy also used in the market for analysis.

Originally paper used this below four methods which helps to make forecasting of software technologies:-

i) Logistic (Pearl curve) - In this model, growth is slow in the early stage of adoption and becomes faster as product demand approaches the saturation level.

ii) Gompertz - The Gompertz curve is similar to the logistic curve, but its point of inflection is not symmetrical and also it does not plot a straight line on a semi-log graph. These curves are used to represent technologies where the growth in the initial stage is faster than in the logistic curve.

iii) Mono-Molecular- This model describes the progress of a growth situation in which it is believed that the rate of growth at any time is proportional to the resources yet to be achieved. The Mono-Molecular model has no inflection point. Mono-Molecular model is also called as Brody equation or Mitscherlich model.

iv) Log-logistic- The log-logistic equation was originally proposed by Cole and his colleagues in 1993 to describe the nonlinear thermal inactivation of micro-organisms and later was modified by Chen and Hoover in 2003 to avoid the direct use of different initial numbers and to reduce the number of parameters in the equation from four to three.