Question

Differentiate between the Delphi Method and the Survey Method of qualitative forecasting?

Answer 1

Delphi Method

The Delphi method is a forecasting process framework based on the results of multiple rounds of questionnaires sent to a panel of experts. Several rounds of questionnaires are sent out to the group of experts, and the anonymous responses are aggregated and shared with the group after each round. The experts are allowed to adjust their answers in subsequent rounds, based on how they interpret the "group response" that has been provided to them. Since multiple rounds of questions are asked and the panel is told what the group thinks as a whole, the Delphi method seeks to reach the correct response through consensus.

Key Points

• The Delphi method is a process used to arrive at a group opinion or decision by surveying a panel of experts.
• Experts respond to several rounds of questionnaires, and the responses are aggregated and shared with the group after each round.
• The experts can adjust their answer each round, based on how they interpret the "group response" provided to them.
• The ultimate result is meant to be a true consensus of what the group thinks.

Survey Method

Survey method is one of the most common and direct methods of forecasting demand in the short term. This method encompasses the future purchase plans of consumers and their intentions. In this method, an organization conducts surveys with consumers to determine the demand for their existing products and services and anticipate the future demand accordingly.

The survey method undertakes three exercises

• The Survey method is a process used to arrive at a decision by summarising data collected from consumers(target).
• Consumers' respond to questionnaires collected, summarised and analysed.
• The ultimate result is feeling of majority's target.