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Nicole Miller’s daughter decided not to follow into the family apparel business. She was interested in her grandmother’s ice cream business. She found from her Uncle that they kept record while grandma lived in Chicago. The data is show at right. Time series data (monthly sales in dollars, $1,000 omitted)

# N ON M-Year A-13 M-13 J-13 J-13 A-13 S-13 0-13 N-13 D-13 J-14 F-14 M-14 A-14 M-14 Sales 327 288 269 256 286 298 318 329 381

Do a 3-month moving average, what is July 2013 forecast?

Do a 6-month moving average, what is the October 2013 forecast?

Do a 12-month moving average, what is April 2014 forecast?

What is the long-term prospect of this business?

business   Operations-Management   
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Year Month Period Sales MA-3 MA-6 MA-12
2013 Apr 1 327
May 2 288
Jun 3 269
Jul 4 256 294.7
Aug 5 286 271.0
Sep 6 298 270.3
Oct 7 318 280.0 287.3
Nov 8 329 300.7 285.8
Dec 9 381 315.0 292.7
2014 Jan 10 470 342.7 311.3
Feb 11 443 393.3 347.0
Mar 12 386 431.3 373.2
Apr 13 342 433.0 387.8 337.6
May 14 319 390.3 391.8 338.8
Jun 15 307 349.0 390.2 341.4
Jul 16 284 322.7 377.8 344.6
Aug 17 309 303.3 346.8 346.9
Sep 18 326 300.0 324.5 348.8
Oct 19 359 306.3 314.5 351.2
Nov 20 376 331.3 317.3 354.6
Dec 21 416 353.7 326.8 358.5
2015 Jan 22 548 383.7 345.0 361.4
Feb 23 506 446.7 389.0 367.9
Mar 24 444 490.0 421.8 373.2
Apr 25 448 499.3 441.5 378.0
May 26 408 466.0 456.3 386.8
Jun 27 387 433.3 461.7 394.3
Jul 28 373 414.3 456.8 400.9
Aug 29 408 389.3 427.7 408.3
Sep 30 420 389.3 411.3 416.6
Oct 31 429 400.3 407.3 424.4
Nov 32 442 419.0 404.2 430.3
Dec 33 499 430.3 409.8 435.8
2016 Jan 34 589 456.7 428.5 442.7
Feb 35 561 510.0 464.5 446.1
Mar 36 493 549.7 490.0 450.7
Apr 37 461 547.7 502.2 454.8
May 38 430 505.0 507.5 455.8
Jun 39 434 461.3 505.5 457.7
Jul 40 406 441.7 494.7 461.6
Aug 41 428 423.3 464.2 464.3
Sep 42 450 422.7 442.0 466.0
Oct 43 481 428.0 434.8 468.5
Nov 44 485 453.0 438.2 472.8
Dec 45 536 472.0 447.3 476.4
2017 Jan 46 556 500.7 464.3 479.5
Feb 47 658 525.7 489.3 476.8
Mar 48 557 583.3 527.7 484.8

Calculations:

F A B C D E G 1 Year Month Period Sales МА-12 МА-3 МА-6 2013 Apr 327 3 May 2 288 Jun 3 269 5 =AVERAGE(E3:E5) AVERAGE (E4:E6)

Time-series Plot 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 40 0 10 20 50 60 Period 30 C

The time-series plot clearly shows that there is an increasing trend in sales over the period. So, the long-term prospect of the business seems good given the economy is stable.

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