Question

Classify the following risks into variation, foreseen uncertainty, unforeseen uncertainty, and chaos:

a. A hurricane on the U.S. East Coast floods a regional warehouse destroying a large amount of stock.

b. A machine on the plant floor breaks down for an hour.

c. Bad weather on the weekend causes an increase in demand for umbrellas.

d. A cool summer causes a decrease in demand for air conditioners for that season.

e. The excavation process for a new manufacturing plant in the U.S. Midwest uncovers an archaeological find of such significance that no building can take place on that site and a new site for the plant must be found.

f. Competitors to the iPad launch smaller tablet computers before the iPad mini is ready to launch, thus negatively affecting demand for the iPad.

g. The Second World War caused auto manufacturers to switch to producing military vehicles.

h. A drug is found to have dangerous side effects following its launch.

i. The transportation disruptions, including the grounding of all airplanes, following the attacks on September 11, 2001 severed many supply chains.

Answer 1

a. Foreseen uncertainty

b. Unforeseen certainty

c. Variation

d.Variation

e.Chaos

f. Foreseen uncertainty

g. Variation

h. Chaos

i. Unforeseen certainty

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