Question

In the Tiger problem, an agent is facing two closed doors. Behind one of the doors is a treasure, and behind the other is a tiger. Initially, the tiger has a 50-50 chance of being behind either door. The tiger will switch the door with a 30% chance. The agent makes one of two possible "observations": either it hears the tiger on the right or it hears the tiger on the left. The agent will hear the tiger behind the correct door with an 85% chance, and behind the incorrect door with a 15% chance.

a) Formulate the tiger problem as a hidden Markov model: describe the states, state transition probabilities, observations and observation probabilities.

b) Suppose you believe the tiger is behind the right door with probability 0.85 and you hear the tiger is on the left. What is the new probability that the tiger is behind the right door?

Answer 1