The values of Alabama building contracts (in millions of dollars) for a 12-month period follow.
230 340 230 270 280 320 220 310 240 290 260 230
(i) |
Value (Millions of dollars) Month (t) |
(ii) |
Value (Millions of dollars) Month (t) |
(iii) |
Value (Millions of dollars) Month (t) |
(iv) |
Value (Millions of dollars) Month (t) |
Moving average |
Exponential smoothing |
|
MSE |
a)
horizontal trend
b)for 3 month forecast:
3 month | ||||
t | value | forecast | error | error^2 |
1 | 230 | |||
2 | 340 | |||
3 | 230 | |||
4 | 270 | 266.67 | 3.33 | 11.09 |
5 | 280 | 280.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
6 | 320 | 260.00 | 60.00 | 3600.00 |
7 | 220 | 290.00 | 70.00 | 4900.00 |
8 | 310 | 273.33 | 36.67 | 1344.69 |
9 | 240 | 283.33 | 43.33 | 1877.49 |
10 | 290 | 256.67 | 33.33 | 1110.89 |
11 | 260 | 280.00 | 20.00 | 400.00 |
12 | 230 | 263.33 | 33.33 | 1110.89 |
total | 300.00 | 14355.04 | ||
average | 33.333 | 1595.00 |
for 0.2 smoothing forecast:
exponential smoothing | ||||
month | value | forecast | error^2 | |
1 | 230 | |||
2 | 340 | 230.00 | 12100.00 | |
3 | 230 | 252.00 | 484.00 | |
4 | 270 | 247.60 | 501.76 | |
5 | 280 | 252.08 | 779.53 | |
6 | 320 | 257.66 | 3886.28 | |
7 | 220 | 270.13 | 2513.02 | |
8 | 310 | 260.10 | 2490.01 | |
9 | 240 | 270.08 | 904.81 | |
10 | 290 | 264.07 | 672.36 | |
11 | 260 | 264.07 | 16.56 | |
12 | 230 | 269.25 | 1540.56 | |
260.00 | total | 25888.89 | ||
average | 2353.54 |
MSE for moving average =1595.00
MSE for exponential smoothing forecast =2353.54
c)
since MSE for moving average is less , this will provide the best forecast
forecast for the next month=(290+260+230)/3 =260
The values of Alabama building contracts (in millions of dollars) for a 12-month period follow. 230 340 230 270 280 320 220 310 240 290 260 
The values of Alabama building contracts (in $ millions) for a 12‐month period follow: 240 350 230 260 280 320 220 310 240 310 240 230 a. Construct a time series plot. What type of pattern exists in the data? (4 marks) b. Compare the three‐month moving average approach with the exponential smoothing forecast using α=0.4. Which approach provides more accurate forecasts based on MSE? (6 marks) c. What is the forecast for the next month? (3 marks) d. Explain...
Need help with #2. The data set mentioned is the numbers that are provided. 7.pdf Get Homework Help With Chege + × Homework%20%237.pdf Does the three-month or four-month moving average provide more accurate d) forecasts based on MSE? What is the forecast for the next month using the better forecasting method e) you decided in part d)? Problem 13 on Page 822. The values of Alabama building contracts (in Smillions) for a 12-month period follow. 240 350 230 260 280...
answer 1-3 please don't copy from previous post. good luck Problems #3, 5, 7 (P3) The owner of the Chocolate Outlet Store wants to forecast chocolate demand. Demand for the preceding four years is shown in the following table: Year Demand (Pounds) 1 68,800 2 71,000 3 75,500 4 71,200 Forecast demand for Year 5 using the following approaches: (1) a three-year moving average; (2) a three-year weighted moving average using .40 for Year 4, .20 for Year 3, and...
AutoSave of Exam3 PartB_SP20_Due_04_24 - Excel File Home insert Draw Page Layout Formulas Data Review View Help Search ΑΙ Formula Bar с 1 Week Week D E F G H I J On 3a [10 points). Data set to your left (sheet On3a) contains information on weekly sales for a local grocery store over a 12-week period. Use the data set to answer the following questions 1. Construct a time series plot. What type of pattern exists in the data?...
1. Exercise 5.1 The forecasting staff for the Prizer Corporation has developed a model to predict sales of its air-cushioned-ride snowmobiles. The model specifies that sales, S, vary jointly with disposable personal income, Y, and the population between ages 15 and 40,Z, and inversely with the price of the snowmobiles, P. Based on past data, the best estimate of this relationship is: where k has been estimated (from past data) to equal 100 If Y $13,000, Z- $1,200, and P...
Futures Contracts Contract Open High o Low Worldoc 12000 s par 12 50 122 Domesticocs-12000 sper Open Og Hont Sttle Metal & Petroleum Futures Contract High to Low 1242 1254 1264 1235 1254 Open Og test 1263 Opm Copper Hgh (0-25000 per 23760 2975 2040 3.0240 Gold c-100 troya.Spertroyo Settle May July March May 29760 2995 0.030 29775 30 00305 150261 - 12 24 35 24 Cotton C--50000bsntspart 277 7.92 Orange Juice 0uS15000 Bsantspert 13810 135 25.05 2542 March Apr...