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Here are the data for the past 21 months for actual sales of a particular product:...

Here are the data for the past 21 months for actual sales of a particular product:

LAST YEAR THIS YEAR
January 330 285
February 450 385
March 455 355
April 455 410
May 410 440
June 435 350
July 400 390
August 310 300
September 355 395
October 480
November 555
December 540

Develop a forecast for the fourth quarter using a three-quarter, weighted moving average. Weight the most recent quarter 0.50, the second most recent 0.25, and the third 0.25. Do the problem using quarters, as opposed to forecasting separate months. (Round your answer to 2 decimal places.)

business   Operations-Management   
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Answer #1

FORECAST FOR 4TH QUARTER = 1098.75

PERIOD

LAST YEAR

THIS YEAR

SUM OF QUARTER

FORECAST

1

330

285

2

450

385

3

455

355

4

455

410

1025

5

410

440

6

435

350

7

400

390

1200

8

310

300

9

355

395

10

480

1085

1098.75

11

555

12

540

TO CALCULATE THE FORECAST BASED ON QUARTERS, WE TAKE THE SUM OF THE QUARTER TO BE THE VALUE FOR THE FORECAST.

WEIGHTED AVERAGE = SIGMA(WEIGHT FOR THE PERIOD * DEMAND FOR THE PERIOD) / SUM OF THE WEIGHTS.

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