Question

The Chicago Bulls (CB) has won 6 NBA Championship over the last 53 years. Assuming that this presents a reasonable model to define the probability of the CB to win the title (p=6/53=0.11), what would be the probability of the CB winning 6 championships between 1991 to 1998? Given this model and calculated probability, and noting that this has actually occurred, how reliable if this simple model? If any, how could the model be improved? [15%]

Answer 1

Given

p=6/53=0.11

From 1991 to 1998 there are 8 years

Let X is number of years in which CB won the championship.

Then X~Bin(8,0.11)

Now we have to find

P(X=6)=?

=0.000039

Its not much reliable because since 53 years there are lot of changes happened it's possible that CB have won championship 40 years ago or may be they have won all 6 recently so if we don't consider that then we will get wrong Probability.we should analyze CB performance in different time intervals and based on that we come with a different model than could be more reliable.