Question

This is a question that challenges you to see if you have understood one of the major points of this chapter. Discuss the following quotation using the concepts of and the interaction between: the CBR, the CDR, the fertility rate, and the demographic transition. “There is no population problem in less-developed countries. There is only a development problem.”

Answer 1

Demographic transition theory is a model that depicts the population transition of a nation as the fertility rate and mortality rate respond to the changes in economic shift of that economy. A demographic transition model notes the shift from high birth rates and high infant death rates predominant in a less developed economy transforming eventually to low birth rates and low death rates as the economy develops. The mentioned quotation regarding lack of development posing a threat to the less developed economy refers to the demographic trap mentioned in the explanation of stage 2 of the theory.

As depicted in the diagram above, the transition mainly involves four stages:

1. Stage 1 – High Crude Birth Rate and High Crude Death rate

In an under developed economy, we expect to find a low growth of population as this stage witnesses a high crude birth rate accompanied with an equally high death rate. The society is constrained by the available food supply, negligible technology and poor medical benefit, which balances the crude birth rate with crude death rate leading to a sluggish growth of population

2. Stage 2 – High Crude Birth Rate and Low Crude Death Rate

As the economy begins to develop, the food supply and medical facilities improves. This increases the life expectancy and reduces the crude death rates. This stage hence witnesses a large population boom arising out to the great imbalance between crude birth rate and crude death rate. It is important to note here that though the economy begins to develop, the development addresses only the basic needs of the society such as food supply, medical benefits etc. The dependency of such economies still largely stay on the agricultural sector with limited wages, jobs and education. It is important to note that the high population is largely consistent of the working labour. However, if the economic development does not match up with this growing population, it will lead to high unemployment, which in turn will create a large pressure on the resources and have other cascading effects on the society. This stage is also referred as the ‘Demographic trap’ because in absence of further economic development, stabilization of the large population growth cannot be attained.

3. Stage 3 – Falling Crude Birth Rate and Low Crude Death Rate

As economy develops further it reaches the stage where there is more urbanization and the focus to shift to addressing the other requirements of the society other than the primary needs. Hence the economy now witnesses increase in urbanization, wages, job opportunities, education of society, particularly women, access to better medical facilities like contraception, reduction in subsistence agriculture, lesser dependency of child labour, enhanced status of women, transition in values. All these factors contribute significantly to reduction of the fertility rate, which eventually leads to reducing crude birth rate. The crude death rate continues to remain low as from its previous stage, leading to an overall shift towards lowering of population growth.

4. Stage 4 – Low Crude Birth Rate and Low Crude Death Rate

As the economy moves into a developed phase, the crude birth rates continue to drop sharply. This leads to a low population growth. The large number of births that took place in the second stage, now become the dependent population, leading to higher burden on the already shrinking working population. We may see a slight rise in the crude death rates or reduced fertility in this stage arising due to lifestyle diseases.