Question

***PLEASE provide clear screenshots on Excel

Using the visit data from Exercise 2.1:

(a) Prepare a forecast for January visits, using the simple exponential smoothing method with α = 0.3.

(b) If α = 0.5, 0.0, and 1 what is the predicted value for January visits?

(c) What other forecasting methods yield results similar to the exponential smoothing forecasts with α = 1.0 and α = 0.0?

Period	Month		Actual Visits
1	July		2,160
2	August		2,186
3	September		2,246
4	October		2,251
5	November		2,243
6	December		2,162

Answer 1

• the formula to be used in Simple Exponential smoothing is

F_t+1= alpha*A_t + (1-alpha) F_t

A_t means Actual demand of t'th period, if you want to find out the Forecast through exponential smoothing= forecast of 3rd period = alpha*actual demand of 2nd period +(1-alpha) *forecast demand of 2nd period

Period 7 forecast represents the January forecast

(a) Prepare a forecast for January visits, using the simple exponential smoothing method with α = 0.3.

Period, t	At, Demand	Ft, Forecast
1	2,160	2160
2	2,186	2160.0
3	2,246	2167.8
4	2,251	2191.3
5	2,243	2209.2
6	2,162	2219.3
7		2202.1

(b) If α = 0.5, 0.0, and 1 what is the predicted value for January visits

α = 0.5

Period, t	At, Demand	Ft, Forecast
1	2,160	2160
2	2,186	2160.0
3	2,246	2173.0
4	2,251	2209.5
5	2,243	2230.3
6	2,162	2236.6
January		2199.3

α = 0.0

Period, t	At, Demand	Ft, Forecast
1	2,160	2160
2	2,186	2160.0
3	2,246	2160.0
4	2,251	2160.0
5	2,243	2160.0
6	2,162	2160.0
January		2160.0

α = 1

Period, t	At, Demand	Ft, Forecast
1	2,160	2160
2	2,186	2160.0
3	2,246	2186.0
4	2,251	2246.0
5	2,243	2251.0
6	2,162	2243.0
January		2162.0

(c) other forecasting methods yield results similar to the exponential smoothing forecasts with

α = 1.0 is similar to Naive forecast. In Naive forecast, the actual of the last period is kept forecast of the next period.

and α = 0.0 is the Constant forecast based on the first period.