Question

1. Regression is always a superior forecasting method to exponential smoothing, so regression should be used whenever the appropriate software is available. (Points :1)
True
False


2. Time-series models rely on judgment in an attempt to incorporate qualitative or subjective factors into the forecasting model. (Points : 1)
True
False


3. A trend-projection forecasting method is a causal forecasting method. (Points : 1)
True
False


4. Qualitative models attempt to incorporate judgmental or subjective factors into the forecasting model. (Points : 1)
True
False


5. The naive forecast for the next period is the actual value observed in the current period. (Points : 1)
True
False


6. Time-series models enable the forecaster to include specific representations of various qualitative and quantitative factors. (Points : 1)
True
False


7. The fewer the periods over which one takes a moving average, the more accurately the resulting forecast mirrors the actual data of the most recent time periods.(Points : 1)
True
False


8. A scatter diagram for a time series may be plotted on a two-dimensional graph with the horizontal axis representing the variable to be forecast (such as sales).(Points : 1)
True
False


9. An advantage of exponential smoothing over a simple moving average is that exponential smoothing requires one to retain less data. (Points : 1)
True
False


10. A seasonal index of 1 means that the season is average. (Points : 1)
True
False


11. When the smoothing constant a = 1, the exponential smoothing model is equivalent to the nave forecasting model. (Points : 1)
True
False


12. In a second order exponential smoothing, a low _ gives less weight to more recent trends (Points : 1)
True
False


13. A seasonal index must be between -1 and +1. (Points : 1)
True
False


14. The process of isolating linear trend and seasonal factors to develop a more accurate forecast is called regression. (Points : 1)
True
False


15. Adaptive smoothing is analogous to exponential smoothing where the coefficients and are periodically updated to improve the forecast. (Points : 1)
True
False


16. A graphical plot with sales on the Y axis and time on the X axis is a (Points : 1)
sscatter diagram.
trend projection.
bar chart.
line graph.
radar chart.


17. A medium-term forecast is considered to cover what length of time? (Points : 1)
2-4 weeks
2-4 years
5-10 years
20 years
1 month to 1 year


18. Assume that you have tried three different forecasting models. For the first, the MAD = 2.5, for the second, the MSE = 10.5, and for the third, the MAPE = 2.7. Wecan then say: (Points : 1)
the third method is the best.
methods one and three are preferable to method two.
the second method is the best.
method two is least preferred.
none of the above


19. Which of the following methods produces a particularly stiff penalty in periods with large forecast errors? (Points : 1)
MAPE
Decomposition
MAD
MSE
Bias


20. Enrollment in a particular class for the last four semesters has been 122, 128, 100, and 155 (listed from oldest to most recent). The best forecast of enrollmentnext semester, based on a three-semester moving average, would be (Points : 1)
127.7
126.3
168.3
116.7
135.0

Answer 1

1. Regression is always a superior forecasting method to exponential smoothing, so regression should be used whenever the appropriate software is available. (Points : 1)
True
False


2. Time-series models rely on judgment in an attempt to incorporate qualitative or subjective factors into the forecasting model. (Points : 1)
True
False


3. A trend-projection forecasting method is a causal forecasting method. (Points : 1)
True
False


4. Qualitative models attempt to incorporate judgmental or subjective factors into the forecasting model. (Points : 1)
True
False


5. The naive forecast for the next period is the actual value observed in the current period. (Points : 1)
True
False


6. Time-series models enable the forecaster to include specific representations of various qualitative and quantitative factors. (Points : 1)
True
False


7. The fewer the periods over which one takes a moving average, the more accurately the resulting forecast mirrors the actual data of the most recent time periods. (Points : 1)
True
False


8. A scatter diagram for a time series may be plotted on a two-dimensional graph with the horizontal axis representing the variable to be forecast (such as sales). (Points : 1)
True
False


9. An advantage of exponential smoothing over a simple moving average is that exponential smoothing requires one to retain less data. (Points : 1)
True
False


10. A seasonal index of 1 means that the season is average. (Points : 1)
True
False


11. When the smoothing constant a = 1, the exponential smoothing model is equivalent to the nave forecasting model. (Points : 1)
True
False


12. In a second order exponential smoothing, a low _ gives less weight to more recent trends (Points : 1)
True
False


13. A seasonal index must be between -1 and +1. (Points : 1)
True
False


14. The process of isolating linear trend and seasonal factors to develop a more accurate forecast is called regression. (Points : 1)
True
False


15. Adaptive smoothing is analogous to exponential smoothing where the coefficients and are periodically updated to improve the forecast. (Points : 1)
True
False


16. A graphical plot with sales on the Y axis and time on the X axis is a (Points : 1)
sscatter diagram.
trend projection.
bar chart.
line graph.
radar chart.


17. A medium-term forecast is considered to cover what length of time? (Points : 1)
2-4 weeks
2-4 years
5-10 years
20 years
1 month to 1 year


18. Assume that you have tried three different forecasting models. For the first, the MAD = 2.5, for the second, the MSE = 10.5, and for the third, the MAPE = 2.7. We can then say: (Points : 1)
the third method is the best.
methods one and three are preferable to method two.
the second method is the best.
method two is least preferred.
none of the above


19. Which of the following methods produces a particularly stiff penalty in periods with large forecast errors? (Points : 1)
MAPE
Decomposition
MAD
MSE
Bias


20. Enrollment in a particular class for the last four semesters has been 122, 128, 100, and 155 (listed from oldest to most recent). The best forecast of enrollment next semester, based on a three-semester moving average, would be (Points : 1)
127.7
126.3
168.3
116.7
135.0