Question

2 Use the table to estimate the probability of the pig landing on its feet. Imagine that a pharmaceutical company has developed a new drug to treat high company thoroughly tested the new drug in many clinical trials. Clinical trials, by law, must involve a very large number of patients. The results of the clinical trials for the new drug show that it lowers blood pressure in 75% of patients. blood pressure. The A local doctor gave the new drug to her patients with high blood pressure. After taking the drug, 90% of those patients had lower blood pressure. The doctor was so excited that she now claims the drug is a medical breakthrough. 3 Which is more likely to be closer to the true percentage of patients who will have their blood pressure lowered by the drug? 75% or 90%? Explain your answer. The drug's success rate in lowering patients' blood pressure in the clinical trials was different than the drug's success rate for the doctor's patients. Why might that be? In explaining your reasoning, think about the Law of Large Numbers 4

Answer 1

3.

75% is more likely to be closer to the true percentage of patients who will have their blood pressure lowered by the drug because 75% is the result of many trials whereas 90% is the result of a single trial.

4.

It's because clinical trials involve many trials (samples) while the doctor's patients is only a single trial (sample). According to the law of large numbers, the average of results from many samples should be closer to the expected value and it becomes more and more close as the number of trials increases. So, 75% is more likely to be closer to the true percentage than that of 90%. That's why both the percentages are different.