The following seasonal regression was fitted with quarterly seasonal binaries beginning in the fi...
The following seasonal regression was fitted with quarterly seasonal binaries beginning in the first quarter (Qtr4 is omitted to avoid multicollinearity). Make a prediction for y_t in period (a) t=21; (b) t=8; (c) t=15
yt=213+11t-9 Qtr1+12 Qtr-15 Qtr3
Homework Answers
yt=213+11t-9 Qtr1+12 Qtr2 -15 Qtr3
Using Qtr vlues as 0/1 for the corresponding quarters (Q1=1 for first quarter sales, when Q2/Q3/Q4 will be 0).
a) y21 = 213
The table below shows the calculations of sales per quarter of the year, coefficient of Q4 always being 0 as per the model:
| t | Qtr1 | Qtr2 | Qtr3 | Qtr4 | yt |
| 21 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 435 |
| 21 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 456 |
| 21 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 429 |
| 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 444 |
where yt is calculated using the regression equation above, plugging in the different values for Year/Qtr1/Qtr2/Qtr3/Qtr4 as per the year and quarter number.
b) Similarly, for t=8:
| t | Qtr1 | Qtr2 | Qtr3 | Qtr4 | yt |
| 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 292 |
| 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 313 |
| 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 286 |
| 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 301 |
c) Similarly for t=15:
| t | Qtr1 | Qtr2 | Qtr3 | Qtr4 | yt |
| 15 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 369 |
| 15 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 390 |
| 15 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 363 |
| 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 378 |
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The following seasonal regression was fitted with quarterly seasonal binaries beginning in the fi...
The following seasonal regression was fitted with quarterly seasonal binaries beginning in the first quarter (Qtr4...
The following seasonal regression was fitted with quarterly seasonal binaries beginning in the first quarter (Qtr4 is omitted to avoid multicollinearity). Make a prediction for y_t in period (a) t=21; (b) t=8; (c) t=15 yt=213+11t-9 Qtr1+12 Qtr-15 Qtr3
DATA ANALYTICS
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