Return to the original model. We now introduce a bias parameter Pr for every possible amount of money that measures the...
Return to the original model. We now introduce a Poisson intensity parameter X for every time point and denote the parameter () that gives the canonical exponential family representation as above by θ, . We choose to employ a linear model connecting the time points t with the canonical parameter of the Poisson distribution above, i.e., n other words, we choose a generalized linear model with Poisson distribution and its canonical link function. That also means that conditioned on t,...
In this problem, we will model the likelihood of a particular client of a financial firm defaulting on his or her loans based on previous transactions. There are only two outcomes, "Yes" or "No", depending on whether the client eventually defaults or not. It is believed that the client's current balance is a good predictor for this outcome, so that the more money is spent without paying, the more likely it is for that person to default. For each x,...