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Demand 21,520 Period September 2018 October 201823,670 November 2018 December 2018 Period Demand 22,820 March 2018 April 2018
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Answer #1

answer For  March 2019 the forecast demand is 26479.17

here seasonality is not defined , let it defined first

March, april, May are season1(S1)

June , July , August are season2(S2)

September, October and November are season 3(S3) and

December, January and February are season 4 (S4) and data are defined as and the estimated model is

y= 21784.17+307.5*t+697.5*S1-2265*S2-477.5*S3

for March 2019, the t=13 and S1=1, S2=0, S3=0 and y=21784.17+307.5*13+697.5*1-2265*0-477.5*0=26479.17

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.852086363
R Square 0.726051171
Adjusted R Square 0.569508982
Standard Error 1208.057276
Observations 12
ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 4 27075150 6768788 4.638054 0.038106
Residual 7 10215816.67 1459402
Total 11 37290966.67
Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%
Intercept 21784.16667 4749.729305 4.586402 0.002525 10552.84 33015.49
t 307.5 427.1127458 0.71995 0.494886 -702.461 1317.461
S1 697.5 3968.549361 0.175757 0.865461 -8686.63 10081.63
S2 -2265 2745.950771 -0.82485 0.436659 -8758.14 4228.142
S3 -477.5 1617.022758 -0.2953 0.776334 -4301.15 3346.151
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