You ask your neighbor to water a sickly plant while you are on vacation. Without water, it will die with probability .8; with water, it will die with probability .15. You are 90 percent certain that your neighbor will remember to water the plant.
(a) What is the probability that the plant will be alive when you return?
(b) If the plant is dead upon your return, what is the probability that your neighbor forgot to water it?
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