A model for the movement of a stock supposes that if the present price of the stock is s, then after one period, it will be either us with probability p or ds with probability 1 − p. Assuming that successive movements are independent, approximate the probability that the stock’s price will be up at least 30 percent after the next 1000 periods if u = 1.012, d = 0.990, and p = .52.
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